U.S. rail traffic experienced a 2.5% increase during week 30, though experts suggest the headline figures mask underlying industrial strength when coal carloads are removed from the calculation. According to FreightWaves, which reviewed the latest data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR), carloads excluding coal rose 2.1% for the week and maintain a 4% growth rate on a year-to-date basis.
Bill Stephens, editor of Trains Magazine, observed that the consistent growth in non-coal carloads serves as a reliable proxy for broader industrial production. While total North American rail traffic saw a 2.5% rise, the composition of that growth remains varied. Intermodal traffic climbed 4.3%, while total carloads experienced a more modest 0.5% gain. This overall performance represents a deceleration from the preceding four-week period, during which total North American traffic grew at a rate exceeding 4%.
Data specific to the U.S. market indicates that seven out of the 10 commodity categories monitored by the AAR reported gains. However, U.S. carloads dipped 0.4%, trailing the four-week trend which had been just under positive 1%. Intermodal traffic in the U.S. grew by 4.8%, a decrease from the 6.4% pace observed in the prior four-week window.
Weekly Rail Performance Metrics
| Category | Weekly Change | Context/Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Total N. American Traffic | +2.5% | Decelerated from prior 4-week trend |
| N. American Intermodal | +4.3% | Slower than 4-week growth average |
| N. American Carloads | +0.5% | Reflects broader industrial mix |
| U.S. Metallic Ores | +16% | Standout performance |
| U.S. Scrap Iron & Steel | +20% | Outpacing 4-week trends |
| U.S. Chemicals | -2.2% | Up 2.4% year-to-date |
| U.S. Grain | +4% | In line with recent trend |
Steel-related commodities displayed significant activity, with metallic ores surging 16% and scrap iron and steel rising 20% for the week. Conversely, the chemicals sector, typically the second-largest traffic segment, fell 2.2% for the week. Despite this short-term decline, chemicals remain 2.4% higher on a year-to-date basis.
Why It Matters
The divergence between total carload volume and specific industrial commodity segments signals a maturing recovery in the manufacturing sector. While aggregate data might suggest plateauing demand, the double-digit growth in metallic ores and steel scrap indicates that heavy industrial supply chains are moving essential raw materials at a high velocity. This suggests that capital investment in infrastructure and heavy manufacturing remains a primary driver for rail volumes, even as consumer-facing intermodal volume normalizes. Monitoring these specific carload categories provides a more accurate real-time pulse on heavy industrial output than broad macroeconomic headlines.
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